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COVID: Lies and Statistics

There’s an old line about the three types of lies: “lies, damn lies, and statistics.” What this refers to is that citing statistics is not in and of itself proof of anything. It’s the logic with which they are analyzed (as well as the objectivity of the sources from which they come).

A hard thing for people to understand in this internet statistic-besotted time of ours is that the absence of statistics about cases proves that isolation is working. We know from past pandemics the likely infection rate (>50% in Spanish flu), and it is much lower in this pandemic than previous ones. Remember “flattening the curve”? Those graphs showing the rise of infection slowing after isolation measures is exactly what science and statistics predicted would happen and what we want.

I just read a Facebook post where someone compared the 55,000 auto deaths to COVID deaths and said that staying at home would lower car deaths, too, but we don’t do it because it would stop the economy. Car deaths are not virus deaths, and many assumptions in the argument are flawed. Only the TOTAL number of car accidents changes when people stay at home. The RATE may actually increase. A recent LA Times article notes that a 60% lowering of traffic resulted in a 50% lowering of accidents. Meaning the proportion of accidents went up (the accident rate went down less than the traffic rate).

Also keep in mind any time you hear the number of “cases,” you are hearing the number of “positive tests.” The number of cases is likely much higher. And any time you read the number of “COVID deaths,” you are reading the “number of death certificates on which COVID is listed as the cause.” Many institutions are trying NOT to use that on death forms, and until medical charts are reviewed with hindsight that an as-yet-unknown epidemic existed, many more deaths will be attributed to COVID.

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